By R.J. Morales | TX3DNews.com
McKinney voters aren’t sitting this one out.
As early voting closes and Saturday’s runoff looms, turnout is bucking the trend — and rising. In a race often decided by a few hundred ballots, this unexpected surge could shake up everything.
New numbers from Collin County show that 15,749 in-person early votes and approximately 330 mail-in ballots were cast by McKinney voters ahead of the June 7 runoff — an 20% increase over the 13,068 in-person early votes plus 308 mail in ballots recorded during the May 3 general election.
That kind of turnout is unusual for a runoff — especially one held just weeks after a general election. Instead of the expected drop-off, McKinney saw an increase in early voting. It’s a clear sign that voters are still tuned in. From steady turnout at polling sites to active discussions in local Facebook groups, the momentum hasn’t faded. And with margins expected to be tight, even a few hundred votes on Saturday could tip the balance.
Mayor’s Race: Close Finish, Even Closer Now
In May, Bill Cox led the mayoral race with 6,254 early + mail votes (46.75%), while Scott Sanford earned 5,432 (40.61%). Two other candidates — Taylor Willingham and Matt “Doc” Rostami — pulled in a combined 1,559 early/mail votes (11.65%).
Apply those same percentages to the 16,079 early/mail ballots now cast, and here’s how the numbers shake out:
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Cox would get roughly 7,516 votes (46.75%)
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Sanford would get about 6,519 votes (40.61%)
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The remaining 2,044 votes? Those came from voters whose May candidates are no longer in the race — and if voting patterns hold, they’re now up for grabs.
That swing bloc is big enough to flip the result. If Sanford consolidates most of it, he could win. If Cox holds his base and picks up even a portion, he could lock it down. The math is tight — and the ground game will decide it.
At-Large Seat 1: 54% of May Votes Are in Play
The council runoff between Ernest Lynch and Jim Garrison is even more unpredictable. On May 3, early/mail votes broke down like this:
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Ernest Lynch: 3,711 votes (27.74%)
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Jim Garrison: 2,420 votes (18.09%)
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Combined votes for eliminated candidates: 5,806 (43.39%)
Apply those same shares to the 16,079 early/mail ballots:
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Ernest Lynch would earn approximately 4,462 votes (27.74%)
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Jim Garrison would get around 2,910 votes (18.09%)
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That leaves roughly 8,707 votes (54.17%) that originally went to candidates no longer in the race — votes that are now the biggest wildcard in this runoff.
If even a fraction of those voters return — and shift their support — they could determine the winner. That’s why both campaigns are focused on re-engaging these voters before Saturday. The math shows: there’s still plenty left to decide, and Saturday could decide it all.
Why Saturday Still Matters
Even with the surge in early voting, Election Day remains a major factor — and possibly the deciding one. On May 3, more than 5,900 voters turned out on Election Day in the mayoral race alone. Sanford picked up 2,381 of those votes; Cox added 2,703. Another 800+ went to candidates no longer in the race.
The At-Large Seat 1 contest followed a similar pattern: 5,202 people voted on Election Day, but Lynch and Garrison combined for just over 2,300. That means more than 2,800 day-of votes originally went to now-eliminated candidates.
If even a portion of those voters return — and change their support — they could swing either race. That’s why Saturday matters. With early ballots already cast, the outcome could come down to who shows up at the polls and who stays home. It’s a clean slate — and everything’s still on the table.
The Stakes Are Still High
Runoffs are often called “quiet elections,” but that doesn’t make them any less critical — especially in McKinney. An 20% jump in early voting turnout is a strong signal: these races are competitive, and voters are paying attention.
Now the focus shifts to Election Day — and whether campaigns can turn out their base a second time, plus convert enough undecideds and second-choice voters to get across the finish line.
Final Reminder
Election Day is Saturday, June 7.
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Find polling locations and sample ballots at mckinneytexas.org
Turnout is up. The stakes are real. And for both races, it’s all still in play.
Editor’s Note:
This article uses official turnout and vote share data from the May 3 general election to analyze trends ahead of the June 7 runoff. Projected vote counts are calculated by applying May’s early/mail voting percentages to current early voting totals — which include 16,079 in-person and mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballot counts are based on available data and may increase as additional ballots are received and processed.
Actual results may vary based on Election Day turnout, voter behavior shifts, or new participation. Runoff elections are historically unpredictable, and this analysis is intended to provide context — not to forecast outcomes or favor any candidate.
Note: Mail-in ballot totals are based on voters with a McKinney residential address. While this strongly suggests participation in McKinney races like Mayor and At-Large Seat 1, exact contest-level breakdowns won’t be known until official canvass reports are released.
TX3DNews.com does not endorse any candidate or campaign.