By RJ Morales | TX3DNews
On August 4, Rep. Keith Self (R-TX03) posted on X that the United States has “negative net migration for the first time in at least 50 years,” credited former President Trump’s approach with pushing border crossings to a “record low,” and contrasted this with what he called an “illegal alien invasion” under President Biden. Those are consequential claims. Here’s what the best available public data shows — and why residents of Texas’ 3rd Congressional District should care.
Was he telling the truth?
On border crossings, the numbers back him up—for now. CBP’s July operational update is straightforward: 4,601 Southwest border apprehensions and 24,628 total encounters nationwide — the lowest monthly totals on record — with zero parole releases for a third consecutive month. Those figures substantiate the “record-low” description of current crossings. Seasonality likely contributed (extreme summer heat historically suppresses attempts), but the agency’s changes in processing and release policy this year are central to the drop.
Where the claim strains is net migration—the balance of everyone entering minus leaving the U.S., through all channels. The Census Bureau hasn’t published the final 2025 net international migration (NIM) estimate yet; that arrives later this year. Until Census speaks, any definitive call of “negative” is premature. Independent fact-checkers have said as much.
The strongest near-term modeling comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which updated its estimate on July 17: 2025 NIM around +1.0 million, positive but sharply lower than 2023–2024. That undercuts the “it’s already negative” assertion. Put simply: crossings are way down; net migration is down, too—but not confirmed negative.
Encounters vs Net Migration:
Encounters (or apprehensions) are monthly enforcement events at the border. Net migration is the annual balance of everyone who enters and everyone who leaves, across legal and irregular channels. It’s possible to post record-low encounters and still finish the year with positive net migration if legal inflows exceed departures. The official 2025 net-migration figure will come from the Census Bureau at year’s end.
On the “first time in 50 years” line: the last confirmed period of net outflow was in the 1930s, during the Great Depression, when repatriations of people of Mexican descent—including many U.S. citizens—produced net losses. That’s roughly 85–90 years, not 50.
What explains the record lows?
Policy changed fast in 2025. CBP ended appointment scheduling in the CBP One app on Jan. 20, cancelled existing appointments, and later terminated categorical parole programs—moves the administration credits for driving releases to zero. CBP and DHS posted those changes publicly; independent summaries line up.
Congress also passed H.R. 1 — the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” on July 4, a sweeping law with large immigration-enforcement appropriations: tens of billions for CBP infrastructure and staffing and $45B for ICE detention capacity through FY2029. Whatever your politics, that’s a massive resource shift that helps explain the operational numbers you’re seeing.
What about the Biden-era “invasion” contrast?
CBP’s tables show very high encounters in FY 2023 and still-large totals in FY 2024—about 2.9 million nationwide, including roughly 2.1 million at the Southwest land border. Those totals are real; “invasion” is a political characterization, not a statistical category. The clearer summary: encounters surged in 2023, eased in 2024, and have fallen sharply in 2025.
Why TX-03 should care:
On the facts, Rep. Keith Self is correct to say July’s CBP numbers hit record lows and that releases after encounters fell to zero. Where his post gets ahead of the evidence is the “negative net migration” claim: Census hasn’t issued the final 2025 estimate, and the best public models still point to a positive—though much smaller—inflow. And the “first time in 50 years” framing misses the historical record; the last confirmed period of net outflow was in the 1930s. On the “invasion” label, that’s a political characterization, not a statistical category—CBP’s tables do show very high encounters in FY 2023 and still-large totals in FY 2024, but those figures track enforcement events, not an “invasion.”
For Collin County and TX-03, this is practical, not abstract. Employers in logistics, construction, restaurants, health care, child care, and parts of tech have been leaning on immigration to staff shifts and expand. If net migration drops toward ~+1.0M or lower, the labor pool tightens—hiring takes longer, projects slip, overtime rises, and prices feel upward pressure. At the same time, tougher enforcement and fewer releases address real voter concerns about border management. Both can be true: the border metrics improved, and a thinner labor supply can still create friction here at home.
The question for TX03 isn’t whether enforcement works—July’s numbers already answer that. It’s how far to push changes that also reduce available workers and ripple into service levels and costs for families and small businesses. Watch three dials: the final 2025 Census net-migration figure, whether CBP’s lows hold beyond the summer, and local indicators like job openings, time-to-hire, clinic and school waitlists, and small-business hiring. TX-03 should judge this debate by outcomes and data—not slogans.
For more on Collin County and TX-03, see our Local Coverage page.
In the era of ending slavery , did we not say that we could not live without slaves? Often illegal immigration causes lower pay, non taxes collected and the issue of car insurance and licensing. Some might not see these as issues but when an employer can pay an illegal lower than standard wage it hurts all. I have seen waitresses get taken advantage of and “pay for a job”.