By R.J. Morales TX3DNews
Collin County’s March primary did more than determine party nominees for the November ballot. It also offered an early look at how voter participation is changing in one of Texas’ fastest-growing counties.
A closer look at turnout across the 2022, 2024, and 2026 primary elections shows several clear shifts. More voters are participating in primaries, a growing share are casting ballots during the early voting period, and the gap between Republican and Democratic primary turnout narrowed sharply this year.
Those patterns do not predict the outcome of the November election, but they provide an early snapshot of how the electorate in Collin County is evolving as the 2026 campaign season moves forward.
Turnout Reaches a New High
The most notable figure from the 2026 primary is the overall turnout. Nearly 200,000 ballots were cast — 199,606 according to the county’s unofficial canvass — the highest total recorded in the past three primary cycles.
That represents a sharp increase from the 118,036 voters who participated in 2022 and the 137,685 who voted in 2024. In raw terms, the 2026 primary drew more than 60,000 additional voters compared with the previous cycle and over 80,000 more than in 2022.
Measured as a share of registered voters, participation also moved higher. Roughly 26 percent of Collin County’s 760,111 registered voters cast ballots in the 2026 primary.
The increase is notable because primary turnout often declines in years without a presidential race at the top of the ballot. Instead, Collin County moved in the opposite direction.
The county’s voter rolls have expanded steadily — growing from 668,679 registered voters in 2022 to more than 760,000 in 2026 — but participation increased at a faster pace than registration. In other words, the rise in turnout was not driven solely by population growth; a larger share of eligible voters chose to participate this year than in either of the previous two cycles.
Early Voting Continues to Expand
Another clear trend in the results is the continued growth of early voting. In 2026, more than 132,000 voters cast their ballots before Election Day, accounting for roughly two-thirds of all votes in the primary. Election Day itself drew just over 63,000 voters.
The shift has been building for several election cycles. Early voting accounted for about 61,000 ballots in 2022 and 77,000 in 2024 before climbing sharply this year.
That increase represents most of the overall turnout growth in the 2026 primary. While total participation rose significantly compared with previous cycles, a large share of that increase occurred during the early voting period rather than on Election Day itself.
Election Day participation did grow, but at a slower pace. Over the past three primary cycles, the timing of voting has steadily moved earlier in the election calendar, with the majority of ballots now cast before Election Day.
A Shift in Democratic Participation
The largest change in the 2026 primary occurred in the Democratic contest. After two cycles in which Democratic turnout in Collin County remained relatively steady — 36,895 voters in 2022 and 36,060 in 2024 — participation rose to 95,756 ballots this year.
That increase of nearly 60,000 voters accounts for most of the overall growth in primary turnout across the county.
Collin County Democratic Party Chair Jeremy Sutka described the turnout as “historic,” noting the size of the party’s primary electorate compared with recent cycles.
Republican participation followed a different pattern. GOP voters cast 101,625 ballots in 2024 and 103,850 in 2026, a modest increase compared with the surge on the Democratic side.
Both parties also featured competitive statewide contests. Democrats held a closely watched U.S. Senate primary between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett, while Republicans saw a high-profile race between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn.
Even with competitive races on both ballots, the largest shift in participation in Collin County occurred in the Democratic primary electorate.
A Narrowing Gap Between the Parties
In both the 2022 and 2024 election cycles, Republicans entered the general election in Collin County with a large advantage in primary participation. In each case, Republican candidates went on to win the major races on the November ballot.
The 2026 primary tells a different story. Democratic turnout increased sharply, reducing what had been a more than 65,000-vote gap in 2024 to just over 8,000 ballots this year, effectively erasing most of the participation advantage Republicans held in the previous cycle.
That shift does not determine what will happen in November. General elections bring a much larger electorate, including many voters who do not participate in primaries. But the change in participation suggests the two parties are entering the general election season with a different starting point than in recent cycles.
Whether that shift carries into the broader November electorate is the question that will shape the remainder of the 2026 campaign.