Analysis | By R.J. Morales | TX3DNews
McKINNEY, Texas — In March, Democrat Evan Hunt stood before voters at The Guitar Sanctuary in McKinney, answering questions for nearly 90 minutes. Republican Congressman Keith Self, who had been invited to participate in a debate, wasn’t there.
Nearly eight months later, the candidates have still not faced each other on a debate stage.
Instead, Self has campaigned on border security, conservative policies and warnings about Islam and Sharia law. Hunt has focused on affordability, health care, government accountability and individual freedom.
After months of campaigning, Tuesday’s election will determine who represents Texas’ 3rd Congressional District.
But what would it take for either candidate to win?
What the Numbers Tell Us
Early voting data from Theo Elections shows 253,053 in-person voters across TX-03 through October 30.
Of those, 33.9% had participated exclusively in Republican primaries since 2020, compared with 22.3% who participated exclusively in Democratic primaries.
That’s approximately an 11.7-percentage-point advantage for voters with Republican primary histories, not actual votes for Self.
Another 41.1% had no recorded primary participation.
In the Collin County portion of TX-03, PrecinctSmart recorded 220,673 early voters, representing 46.6% turnout. More than half, approximately 53%, had no recorded party-primary history.
Those voters aren’t necessarily independents. Many may have voted consistently for one party in previous general elections without participating in primaries.
The two platforms cover different geographic areas and voting methods. Neither reveals how voters cast their ballots in the congressional race.
What Would It Take for Hunt?
Hunt has spent much of this campaign arguing that TX-03 is more competitive than its Republican history suggests.
In September, he told TX3DNews he believed the race would be decided by fewer than five points, citing internal polling and turnout trends.
His campaign has knocked on thousands of doors, held regular virtual town halls and repeatedly challenged Self to debate.
The controversy over McKinney’s proposed mosque also became part of the congressional race.
When Self spoke against the project during an August City Council meeting and supported recalling council members, Hunt accused the congressman of turning a local zoning matter into a political fight.
He called Self’s appearance a “total publicity stunt.”
The recall effort has since produced approximately 7,400 submitted signatures, which remain under city review. Former Mayor George Fuller has been among its most vocal critics.
Hunt has suggested the controversy could cost Self support among some Republicans.
For Hunt, strong Democratic turnout, support from voters without primary histories and some Republican crossover voting could make a difference.
What Would It Take for Self?
Self won reelection in 2024 with 62.5% of the vote. Texas has since redrawn the congressional district, but the area’s Republican voting history remains an important consideration.
PrecinctSmart’s comparison shows Republicans receiving approximately 56% of the vote in the selected Collin County area in both the 2022 gubernatorial and 2024 presidential elections.
Self also has President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Just before Election Day, Trump singled out Hunt in social media posts while urging support for the congressman.
Self has emphasized immigration enforcement, national security and Republican economic policies.
He has also made opposition to Sharia law a recurring subject of his public statements.
In an October interview with Context Corner, Self said his campaign’s polling ranked Sharia as the second-most-important issue in TX-03. The underlying polling data and methodology have not been made public.
He also warned about imams and what he considers the threat of political Islam.
Hunt has challenged those claims, questioning Self’s focus on Sharia law and arguing that Muslims should enjoy the same religious freedoms as other Americans.
For Self, continued support among Republican voters, along with substantial backing from voters without primary histories, would be consistent with the area’s recent Republican voting patterns.
What Will Voters Decide?
The disagreement over Islam and religious freedom has been one of the more visible differences between the candidates, particularly following the McKinney mosque controversy.
Self has warned that Sharia law and political Islam threaten American constitutional principles.
Hunt has argued that freedom means Americans can say what they want, worship how they want, love who they want and be who they want to be.
Both candidates say they are defending constitutional rights, but they disagree sharply about the threats facing those rights.
Their disagreements extend to health care, housing, public education, immigration and the economy.
Yet despite months of debate invitations, voters never saw the two candidates defend their positions face-to-face.
In October, Self told NewsNation, “This is my seat. I’m going to win it.”
Hunt has spent months campaigning to take that seat.
The early voting figures show more voters with Republican primary histories than Democratic ones, but also a substantial number whose preferences cannot be determined from those records.
After months of campaign appearances, town halls, controversy and competing messages, the question is no longer what Self or Hunt believes voters will do.
It’s what the voters of TX-03 actually decided.
The first answers will come Tuesday night.
Editor’s note: This analysis draws on TX3DNews campaign reporting, historical election results and early voting data from Theo Elections and PrecinctSmart through October 30. The discussion of possible outcomes is hypothetical, not an election forecast. Primary voting history does not establish general-election candidate preferences.